A few days ago, the New York Times ran a very important story on U.S. politics that has not gotten much attention, the “seismic political shift” in composition of the voting population in many US cities. The article gives the central example of last fall’s New York City scramble, where most of the post-election attention to Mayor Michael Bloomberg’s reelection was on how much money he spent to get such a narrow margin of victory.
The article points to much more important political issues than the money and margin in the Bloomberg and other recent elections:
Since 2000, William C. Thompson Jr. has been elected the city’s first black comptroller, Helen M. Marshall has been elected the first black borough president of Queens, and John C. Liu, elected last month to succeed Mr. Thompson, has become the first Asian-American to win citywide office.
It appears that candidates of color in cities like NYC are having an easier time of being elected, especially in larger political units. Citing political consultant Bruce N. Gyory, the Times piece summarizes:
In November’s election, 46 percent of the voters identified themselves as white, 23 percent as black, 21 percent as Hispanic and 7 percent as Asian, according to exit polls by Edison Media Research. The white vote has “bounced around 50 percent as far back as 2001, but this is the first citywide exit poll showing the white proportion being under 50 percent.”
The growing Latino vote is central to this shift. Many are immigrants who are gradually becoming citizens (like other immigrants of color), and the children of the immigrants are also gradually becoming old enough to vote. Gyory makes another very important point:
Gyory said, “that Hispanics constituted 21 percent of the electorate with no Hispanic running citywide exploded conventional wisdom that Hispanics only vote with a Hispanic in a race for citywide office.”
“This polyglot electorate will demand the jigsaw-puzzle skills of coalition-building and diplomacy,” Mr. Gyory said. “Bloomberg will likely be seen historically as a transition figure who got elected with the old base — Jewish and white Catholic — intact, helped by his ability to win a sizable share of minority votes. But Thompson’s and Liu’s ability to begin reuniting a minority-led coalition around Democrats augurs that the future of New York City is where minority voters are an ever firmer, albeit diverse, majority.”
There has been much discussion, and some books (see Vaca’s The Presumed Alliance, for example), on whether Latinos and African Americans can build successful political coalitions, with evidence yes in some places, and no in others. It appears that in the New York cases noted here, and indeed in the November election of President Barack Obama, that a substantial majority of Latinos, black Americans, and Asian Americans (and some other groups of color too) saw their political interests lining up in the same direction, at least this time.
Terrific post, Joe. I was delighted to have the chance to vote for John Liu in the last election and am still slightly shocked that he’s the *first* Asian American elected to citywide office in the city that’s had a large Chinese population for hundreds of years.
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Another notable election here in the city is Bill DiBlasio who won the Public Advocate seat (basically a citizens’ advocate position that Bloomberg has tried to gut). DiBlasio, who is white, is married to an African American woman and they have three kids. As is customary in political ads, DiBlasio featured his wife and kids in his ads. It was rarely remarked on here, but I noted it as a mark of progress. .
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Both Liu and DiBlasio are widely rumored to have their eye on a run for mayor in the next election.
I agree with Jessie, Joe. Nice post. I don’t live in NYC, but it seems as though you’re bouncing back from mayor 9/11! LOL
There’re a number of African Americans who do live in NYC who I know who aren’t pleased with the way Bloomberg won. He campaigned with Gullioni and stoked some race fears. Also, I hear he promised not short change to leaders in the black community for their support.
All that aside, sounds like NYC is the place to be.
A question, though. I’m aware of the conventional “wisdom” about Latin voters. How did that get started? I know people won’t vote if they feel neither candidate represents their interests, could that have been the case?
I agree with Jessie, Joe. Nice post. I don’t live in NYC, but it seems as though you’re bouncing back from mayor 9/11! LOL
There’re a number of African Americans who do live in NYC who I know who aren’t pleased with the way Bloomberg won. He campaigned with Gullioni and stoked some race fears. Also, I hear he promised not short change to leaders in the black community for their support.
All that aside, sounds like NYC is the place to be.
A question, though. I’m aware of the conventional “wisdom” about Latin voters. How did that get started? I know people won’t vote if they feel neither candidate represents their interests, could that have been the case?
Thanks, Jessie and No1KState. I think the conventional wisdom about turnout of Latino voters is based on a marginal understanding. They have been slow to exert their power because about 2/3 of US Latinos are immigrants or their children, and it takes them a while to become citizens if they are immigrants and to become of voting age if they are immigrants’ children. The conventional wisdom about problems in creating coalitions of people of color has been created in part by whites, esp. in the media, and there is some data supporting it, but much contradicting it too.
Thanks Joe.