Exit polls for Super Tuesday reveal interesting racial, gender, and age patterns. I have quickly examined the CNN exit polls for the primaries in California, Missouri, Massachusetts, Connecticut, New York, Tennessee.
In all states but Missouri (with Clinton 1 percent ahead there) women voters gave a much larger percentage of their votes to Senator Hillary Clinton than did men. Senator Obama won the largest percentage of male voters in Massachusetts, Connecticut, Missouri, and (by one percent) California. In all states women voters were a significantly higher proportion (56-59 percent) of total voters than were men. This may bode well for Clinton, should she become the nominee and this very large base of women shifts significantly in her direction.
For each state CNN does a racial breakdown and a combined race-age category listing, along with other breakdowns for characteristics such as religion. Studying the breakdowns for these six selected states indicates that Senator Obama did best among all black age groups, among younger white voters (especially those under 30), and among white independents where they could vote. Senator Clinton did best among white Democrats, especially those above 30, among Latino and Asian American Democrats, and usually among Catholics (and Jewish voters in California).
In California, the two older white age groups (those above 45) gave Senator Clinton a larger percentage of their votes than Senator Obama, with the reverse true for the two younger white age groups. All Latino age groups gave Clinton a substantial majority of their votes. White and Latino Democrats gave the largest percentage of their votes to Clinton, but white independents and black Democrats gave their largest percentages to Obama. Asian American voters gave a substantial majority of their votes to Clinton. Interestingly, while both Protestant and Catholic voters gave Clinton a higher percentage of their votes than they gave Obama, the great difference was for Catholics. California is a state that reported a tally for Jewish voters, who also gave Clinton the largest percentage of their votes.
In Massachusetts all age and racial groups gave Senator Clinton the greater percentage of their votes, except for black Democrats, who gave Senator Obama 63 percent, and whites in the 30-44 age bracket (a tie at 49 percent each). Clinton won the majority of Catholic and Protestant voters.
In Connecticut, Senator Obama won the largest percentage of white voters under 30, while Senator Clinton won the larger percentage of whites aged 30-59 and tied (at 49 percent) for those aged 60 and older. Clinton won the majority of white and Latino Democrats, while Obama won a majority of black Democrats and white independents voting in the Democratic primary. Interestingly, Clinton won the majority of Catholic voters, while Obama won the majority of Protestant voters.
In New York, Senator Clinton won the larger percentage of whites in age groups over 30, while Senator Obama won a substantial majority of those under 30. Obama won substantial majorities of black voters in all age groups. Clinton won a majority of white and Latino Democrats, while Obama won a majority of black Democrats and white independents voting in this democratic primary. Clinton won substantial majorities of Catholic voters.
In Missouri, Senator Clinton again won white voters in the age groups above 30, while Senator Obama won whites in the youngest age group and black voters in the various age groups. Clinton won a substantial majority of white Democrats as a group, while Obama won a substantial majority of white independents and black Democrats. In this state it was Obama who won the larger percentage of Catholic voters, while Clinton won the majority of Protestant voters.
In Tennessee, Senator Clinton won a majority of all white age groups, with Senator Obama winning a majority of all black age groups. Both white Democrats and white independents gave Clinton the larger percentage of their votes, with black Democrats and independents giving Obama a substantial majority of their votes. Clinton won a majority of both Protestant and Catholic voters.
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Senator Clinton did best among white Democrats, especially those above 30…(and Jewish voters in California). Worth noting that it’s always rough to deal with Jews in exit polls or other demographic counts. I’m an ethnic Jew who practices Buddhism (who voted for Obama in New York City, btw), but I show up as white with an “other” religion. With some of the talk about Jewish voters and Obama, it’s worth remembering that a lot of Jews (who I suspect might be more likely to vote for Obama) are getting left out of the analysis.
Matt it’s an interesting side of the coin and I don’t have any answers as I have put thought into the issue in general prior. It’s an important point. But at the same time, the post does a good job of partitioning tends most generally–so what to do.
Hillary also wins non-college whites and those with incomes below $100K, usually by very large margins.
There is much racism brewing on the anti-Obama websites too. He will face a massive backstage and frontstage racism attack if he is the nominee.
I think based on the regions that would make sense, yet I suspect the margins changed as the income declined (particularly with working and lower-class)? Perhaps not. She is really targeting the “middle class” and where I think this plays well for the group noted above is that most people among this group believe they are middle class (regardless of wealth/income/debt ratios). Combine that with racist politics…. It will be interesting how the Clinton supporters will vote if he does become the nominee…. Obama has the potential to unite Democrats at the far end of the continuum with the Independents–most awesome! He brings hope for many. I know which direction many Obama supporters are going if Clinton becomes the nominee–at least back home, which is Green. Interesting, very interesting.
The basic problem for Obama is the high level of racist thinking and framing in most white minds, which is well documented in recent research. A majority of whites only spout colorblind talk in public, as in surveys, then a majority engage in antiblack talk/performances in private with friends and relatives. They talk colorblind in public settings, such as to pollsters and in open political caucuses, but many will vote white in the privacy of the voting booth, esp. if they have a white male McCain as the option. The white racist frame is very antiblack and is now nearly 400 years old and usually trumps inspiration talk and “liberty and justice for all” rhetoric. See Picca and Feagin, Two Faced Racism (Routledge 2007) for the extensive data (drawn from 626 whites who gave us 7500 examples) on backstage racism by educated young whites.
The solution is for all of us who want racial/gender chanage to press nationally and aggressively to accent liberty and justice for all to be more than rhetoric for whites and to counter constantly the antiblack imagery of the white racist frame, as well as the intense sexist framing that dominates this society as well.
And another thought on politics I’m sure that has crossed the minds of all Obama supporters…assassination. Thus, a fellow scholar and I came up with the best solution for protection—he needs to have the worst possible vice president ever (at least in the eyes of the majority)…my fellow scholar suggested Hillary and I disagreed totally for obvious reasons, she’s capable of much. Now, both the centralist Democrats and Republicans hate the Green Party, so, why not Nader? (I love you Nader—no puns intended whatsoever) but, the Green Party and Obama supporters would totally have Obama’s back. Brilliant eh? 😉
(while unlikely, it’s still fun to imagine–blue/green, works for me…nice compromise)
AND! Just learned he’s got Washington State!!! STOMP, STOMP, CLAP!!! Shake the foundation!!! Yay!!!
And one more, can’t resist…A word from the Seattle Times airing the tension of the divided Republicans:
“There is no doubt that we have to work extra-hard in a wacko lefty state like Washington state to get our guys elected,” Eyman said. “They’ve got the crazies in Seattle. We’ve got to come up with more sane people outside of Seattle to make up for them.”
Muhahahaaaa! Republicans are going down in Washington…as usual…
🙂