Racial Patterns in Democratic Voting: White Racism?
(photo credit) The usaelectionpolls.com website has interesting state tabulations by racial group for exit polls for Democratic primaries and caucuses. Given Senator Clinton’s white-framed, racialized remarks on white voters, exit poll data are revealing and relevant to numerous recent debates in the media and elsewhere:
White Voters in the 2008 Exit Polls (29 states)
|
State |
Clinton |
Obama |
|
Averages of States |
54% |
39% |
Senator Clinton got a larger percentage of (exit poll) white voters than Senator Obama in 23 of the 29 states listed here, and also in the more recent states of North Carolina and Indiana. (25 of 31)
Black Voters in the 2008 Exit Polls (23 states)
|
State |
Clinton |
Obama |
|
Averages of States |
17% |
81% |
Senator Obama got the majority of black voters (alway over 67%) in all 23 states listed, plus in recent primaries of North Carolina and Indiana not listed. (25 of 25)
Latino Voters in the 2008 Exit Polls (12 states)
|
State |
Clinton |
Obama |
|
Averages of States |
58% |
39% |
Senator Clinton got a larger percentage of Latino voters than Senator Obama in 9 of the 12 states listed. (9 of 12)
Asian Voters in One 2008 Exit Poll (one state)
|
State |
Clinton |
Obama |
|
Averages of States |
71% |
25% |
|
California |
71% |
25% |
Only one state had enough Asian American voters to report, and Clinton carried them by a large percentage in California. (1 of 1)
There are several interpretations of these striking patterns in exit poll data given by media pundits and political bloggers. Some are arguing the majority of white Democratic Party voters going for Clinton in most states just means that these whites (and other nonblack voters) are choosing the candidate more in line with their political-economic views. Another plausible interpretation of the skew in figures for white voters, as well as for Latino and Asian American voters, is that some significant percentage of these groups hold racial stereotypes and negative feelings about Black men from the still-common white racial frame, and that makes it difficult for some to vote for a Black man for president.
There is significant evidence (here and here) showing the prevalence of stereotyped thinking among a majority of whites about Black Americans in the social science literature. In this regard, as I have argued before, Senator Obama has an uphill battle, especially since the majority of white voters do not vote in Democratic primaries and have yet to be heard from on whether they will exhibit racialized preferences for a white candidate, that is, Senator McCain.
It is also possible that these exit polls are exaggerating to some degree the white support for Senator Obama, since there is pressure for whites to tell pollsters voting preferences that make them look unprejudiced–pressure on some who voted for a candidate besides Obama may lead them to say to pollsters they did vote for Obama. We do not have the data to make more than speculative judgments about the full meaning of these voting data, but it would be surprising if they are not connected, directly or indirectly, to the dominant white racial framing of African Americans.
Many media analysts, as well as some campaign consultants (and Senator Clinton recently) have misread exit poll data. White voters who are not voting for Senator Obama in most of these states are likely to be at least half middle class and upper middle class — and thus are not the proverbial “white working class” or “white blue collar” voters many analysts seem fixated on. Is the reason white middle class voters, and their possible racist reservations about voting for Senator Obama, are neglected in the analyses because most of the media and other public commentators are white middle class?
Moreover, one very striking thing about these data is that neither Senator Clinton, nor anyone else among powerful white political, economic, or religious leaders, seems to be willing to dissect and/or condemn the likely racist framing and motivation that is leading many white voters to shy away from voting for Senator Obama. In my view, his only chance to win in November, assuming he is the Democratic candidate, is to make the white racist frame a political and societal issue and to attack it head on, rather than to let it do its usual huge, often backstage, damage. Otherwise, assuming the social science data are correct about white views on racial matters, he has only a remote chance of winning.
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In an ironic twist, the New York Post, a conservative rag owned by Rupert Murdoch, the same day ran an 
Constitution. In 1787, in Philadelphia, fifty-five white men met and created a constitution for what has been called the “first democratic nation.” They were of European origin, mostly well-off for their day, and or had been slaveowners. Many others profited as merchants, shippers, lawyers, bankers from the trade in slaves, commerce in slave-produced agricultural products, or supplying provisions to slaveholders and slave-traders. In the preamble the founders cite “We the People,” but this did encompass those enslaved–one fifth of the population. As I show in
insurrections; (4) Article 1, Section 9 prevents abolishing the slave trade before 1808; (5) Article 1, Sections 9 and 10 exempt slave-made goods from export duties; (6) Article 4, Section 2 requires the return of fugitive slaves; and (7) Article 4, Section 4 stipulates that the federal government must help states put down domestic violence, including slave uprisings. This is the same Constitution (and the same founders like GW) that so many people today say we should treasure and look back to as our model for equality, liberty, and justice as we deal with racism and other troubling issues today (?).
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